Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are among India’s major producers of rabi crops, including wheat, mustard, gram (chana) and lentil (masur).

A strong El Niño may have caused damage to kharif crops in Maharashtra and Karnataka, but its impact on rabi crops could be more widespread and severe. Deficient rainfall has already delayed sowing in several states, while inadequate soil moisture and depleted irrigation reserves threaten both the area sown and yields. Farmers in key rabi-growing regions are now banking on winter rain from Western disturbances to replenish soil moisture, support germination and reduce dependence on irrigation.

The stakes are high because rabi crops, unlike the monsoon-dependent kharif crops, are sown in the winter months and depend on a combination of residual soil moisture, irrigation and winter precipitation. Rain during this period is particularly important for wheat in northern India, where it helps maintain soil moisture during early crop growth. For pulses and oilseeds, which are often cultivated in rain-fed areas, timely precipitation can determine whether farmers sow the crop at all. A prolonged dry spell could therefore reduce acreage, while inadequate moisture during crop growth could lower yields.

The rainfall deficit across several major agricultural states is already raising concerns. Rajasthan received 9 per cent below-normal rainfall in September and has recorded a 55 per cent deficit between October 1 and 18, according to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data.

Maharashtra is also grappling with a severe rainfall shortfall. The state has declared 305 of its 358 talukas, or nearly 85 per cent, drought-hit. It received just 3 per cent of normal rainfall during the first 18 days of October, following a 52 per cent deficit in September. Madhya Pradesh, which recorded 19 per cent excess rainfall in September, has seen a 96 per cent deficit in October so far.

Uttar Pradesh, despite a 37 per cent rainfall deficit in October, is relatively better placed because it received 65 per cent excess rainfall in September, helping preserve soil moisture for sowing.

Punjab and Haryana, meanwhile, have received a reprieve with October rains after suffering substantial deficits in September. Punjab, which recorded a 64 per cent rainfall shortfall last month, has received 256 per cent above-normal rainfall between October 1 and 18. Haryana, which had a 44 per cent deficit in September, has received 191 per cent excess rainfall during the same period. The precipitation could help farmers begin wheat sowing around its normal window in the first week of November.

Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are among India’s major producers of rabi crops, including wheat, mustard, gram (chana) and lentil (masur). A shortfall in rainfall across these states could have implications for the country’s overall foodgrain and oilseed production.

Although the Agriculture Ministry has yet to begin releasing its weekly rabi sowing updates, sources said gram acreage in Rajasthan was below 6,000 hectares, while mustard acreage was around one lakh hectares. These figures are significantly below the state’s Rabi 2026-27 targets of 21.5 lakh hectares for gram and 37.5 lakh hectares for mustard, indicating that the sowing season is off to a slow start.

The vulnerability is particularly acute for pulses and oilseeds, as 60-70 per cent of their rabi acreage is rain-fed and therefore directly exposed to rainfall shortages, said J S Sandhu, a former Agriculture Commissioner. While irrigation facilities will allow cultivation to continue in some areas, water availability remains a major constraint, including in parts of Punjab and Haryana, he said.

The outlook for pulses is especially concerning in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan. Sandhu cited estimates from one district in Rajasthan, where the government expects pulses acreage to decline by 10 per cent. The risk to production could rise further if El Niño-related terminal heat causes crops to mature prematurely, shortening the grain-filling period and reducing yields.

Insufficient water in reservoirs could also lead to a contraction in the area under major rabi crops, particularly in regions dependent on canal irrigation. Even crops that generally require only one or two rounds of irrigation are now vulnerable, Sandhu said, as inadequate water availability could affect their growth and productivity.

“While Rajasthan has not yet officially declared a drought, the situation is quite critical. A major challenge will be the availability of fodder, as production is expected to be severely limited (fodder crops generally require adequate water),” he said.

Sandhu said the outlook could improve if Western Disturbances bring adequate winter rainfall. These weather systems, which originate in the Mediterranean region, bring precipitation to north-western India during winter and are important for wheat cultivation. Rainfall from such systems can replenish soil moisture, reduce irrigation requirements and support crop development. However, he said two to three Western disturbances during the season would be needed to make a meaningful difference.

Some experts, however, are sceptical about the prospects of sufficient winter rain. They said the likelihood of more Western disturbances could be low, as the current El Niño phenomenon is expected to peak by December, potentially suppressing their activity. El Niño is also contributing to unusually high temperatures across parts of north India, with daytime temperatures still hovering around 30-31 degrees Celsius.

The government has set a rabi foodgrain production target of 177.72 million tonnes for 2026-27, including 121 million tonnes of wheat, 17.20 million tonnes of pulses and 22.30 million tonnes of nutri/coarse cereals.

Among individual crops, the production targets are 12.33 million tonnes for gram, 2.1 million tonnes for lentil, 14.3 million tonnes for mustard and 2.42 million tonnes for barley. The government has also targeted 16.72 million tonnes of rabi rice, marginally above the 16.69 million tonnes set for maize, while the target for sorghum (jowar) stands at 3.19 million tonnes.

Published on October 18, 2026