The geo-economic balance of power around the world, not just in Türkiye’s neighborhood, is being reshaped by war. Dependence on a single transit point in supply chains drives up costs. Currently, armed conflicts are ongoing in areas that directly affect three key global maritime routes. It is almost as if the world’s fate depends on these waterways.

The American-Israeli war against Iran mounts pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, while the clash between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis fuels tensions around Bab al-Mandeb. Finally, the Russo-Ukrainian war undermines Black Sea ports and energy transit networks.

Due to these developments, delivering energy and goods to global markets has become increasingly difficult, while confidence in the uninterrupted flow of supplies has eroded. It is no secret that having alternative channels available allows states to make decisions with fewer constraints. In recent years, the relationship between connectivity and strategic autonomy has thus become increasingly evident.

Against the backdrop of the deepening fragility in global transport geopolitics, the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) launched a highly significant report titled “The Development Road Project: From Economic Corridor to Strategic Power.” At the launch event, participants discussed the construction of the Development Road, the challenges involved, and the opportunities that the relevant countries, and especially Europe, could seize as a result. Following Transport and Infrastructure Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu’s keynote address, the report’s authors offered insights into where regional actors stood on this project based on field interviews, explaining how various parties saw the effort.

Once completed and operational, the Development Road Project will not solve all the region’s supply problems. However, its potential contributions to regional economic integration, greater mutual interdependence, and Iraq’s stability are undeniable.

Over the last century, the Middle East has been plagued by political fragmentation and security challenges despite its vast economic opportunities. Unfortunately, energy reserves and capital accumulation could not be translated into regional stability. To make matters worse, competition over economic resources served to aggravate this instability.

Within this context, Türkiye views the Development Road Project as “common ground” with the potential to mitigate fragmentation and to contribute to economic integration and, consequently, stability – not just a question of transportation geo-economics. In this sense, the project promises to make significant contributions to Iraq’s reconstruction, Türkiye’s production and logistics capacity, and the Gulf’s investment power and search for access to global markets.

That was Uraloğlu’s point precisely: “Today, the world isn’t just looking for the cheapest option. It is looking for the safest, shortest and most predictable route.” As such, diversifying routes and promoting the resilience of trade would serve as geopolitical leverage for countries.

The completion of this project depends on Iraq’s ability to preserve its economic potential under a secure, sustainable and stable government. The central government’s weakness, the presence of non-state armed actors, and the disputes between Baghdad and Irbil over jurisdictions, border crossings and revenue sharing continue to challenge this effort. In particular, Iran’s negative policy toward Iraq’s stability threatens to undermine such initiatives as well as fuel domestic strife.

Achieving the goal of a terror-free Türkiye and a terror-free region, the Iraqi government’s ability to eliminate non-state armed actors, and the successful prevention of outside interference in Iraq’s sovereignty would contribute to the successful implementation of the Development Road Project.