Andalucía's regional ministry of agriculture has forecast the consolidated recovery of the sector in Malaga province in the 2026/2027 season, following the long period of drought.

The drought drastically reduced harvests and subjected the orchards to severe water stress. This year's production outlook shows a marked improvement in the volume of fruit on the trees. This is directly attributable to the water accumulated during the winter and spring, a period in which rainfall enabled water reserves to be replenished and alleviated the situation in the Malaga countryside.

Official estimates forecast a harvest of 330,000 tonnes of olives for pressing, which will yield 59,400 tonnes of olive oil. These figures confirm a slight increase of 0.2% compared with the previous season, which also means consolidating the recovery that began following the worst years of water scarcity and a significant increase of 38.8% when compared with the average of the last five seasons.

Despite these positive forecasts, industry sources, including the Dcoop cooperative group, are stressing the need to treat these theoretical figures with the utmost caution, while also pointing out that official provincial data does not always reflect the reality of the harvest.

The main cause for uncertainty lies in the weather forecast for the coming weeks: the lack of recent rainfall, combined with high temperatures, threatens to affect the size of the olives at a crucial stage. The industry requires a minimum commercial size for the olives to be suitable for green harvesting and sold as table olives.

If the rain does not reach the farms in time, before the fruit loses its suitability for the table, the olives will not reach the required size and a substantial proportion of the crop will inevitably end up being diverted to olive oil mills for the production of olive oil.

Malaga province ranks fourth in Andalucía in terms of olive oil production, trailing the major producing provinces of Jaén, Cordoba and Seville, while outperforming Granada, Cadiz, Huelva and Almeria. In terms of year-on-year performance, the stability of Malaga's countryside (+0.2%) lags behind the sharp increases in Jaén (+47.8%), Cordoba (+37.6%) and Seville (+12.5%), although it avoids the sharp declines in Almeria (-31.8%), Huelva (-15.9%), Cadiz (-4.5%) and Granada (-0.6%).

Finally, in the medium-term comparison with the average over the last five years, the 38.8% rise in Malaga exceeds the figures for Cadiz (+38.6%), Seville (+27.7%), Huelva (+21.4%) and Granada (+14.9%), ranking only below the growth recorded in Jaén (+55.9%) and Cordoba (+49.7%).

Looking at the national level, Spain is forecast to produce 1.6 billion tonnes of olive oil in the 2026/2027 marketing year, representing a 23% increase on the previous harvest, according to the first official forecast from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food.

The ministry has described the forecast harvest as "medium to high", representing a significant recovery from the approximately 1.3 billion tonnes recorded in the 2025/2026 agricultural year. The harvest had initially been forecast at around 1.37 billion tonnes, before adverse weather conditions reduced the final volume by around 5%.

"This initial forecast reflects the weather conditions during the growing season," Minister of Agriculture Luis Planas said. "It guarantees supply and brings stability to both the domestic market and our exports."

However, the ministry emphasised that the forecast remains a provisional estimate. The high summer temperatures had a particularly severe impact on rain-fed olive groves, while the weather conditions during the first few weeks of the new season will influence fruit development, oil yield and final production.

Much will depend on Andalucía, the world's largest olive oil-producing region, which is expected to account for almost four-fifths of Spanish production.

Both the ministry and the regional government forecast a production figure of 1.26 billion tonnes for Andalucía. Jaén, the country's leading producing province, is expected to contribute 575,000 tonnes, which is equivalent to 36% of Spain's total production and 45.6% of Andalucía's production.

Andalusian regional minister of agriculture Ramón Fernández-Pacheco pointed out that the regional forecast serves as an important indicator for markets, both within and outside the region.

"The current growing season has been characterised by a very wet winter, which has helped the crops to thrive, although temperatures well above average have limited their yield potential," he said.

Agricultural organisations have described the Andalusian forecast as broadly plausible, although they have highlighted the significant differences between irrigated and rain-fed olive groves and warned that rainfall levels will continue to be a decisive factor in determining what proportion of the forecast harvest will ultimately reach the oil mills.

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