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СпутникиРНSpaceXРоскосмосNASA"Stranger Things" in the 2026 Arctic
The continuation of cool and stormy conditions over the Arctic Ocean during September bookends the strange summer of 2026. While global air temperatures were at or near record highs for June, July, and August, the summer was cool and stormy over the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied for tenth lowest on the satellite record with 2008, 2010, and 2025, with a loose ice pack on the Atlantic side extending to the pole. However, the post-minimum freeze up has been rapid. Antarctic sea ice extent, which reached its maximum on September 14, dropped sharply through September, hitting record low daily extents since October 2.Overview of conditionsArctic sea ice extent for September 2026 averaged 4.81 million square kilometers (1.86 million square miles), thirteenth lowest in the satellite record (Figure 1a). This monthly average extent was 1.6 million square kilometers (618,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average (Figure 1b). Since the seasonal sea ice minimum that occurred on September 12, tying for tenth lowest in the satellite record, extent as of early October remains below average along the Eurasian coast, especially in the Kara and Barents Seas. While the Northern Sea route appears to be largely free of ice, significant ice remains in the southern (Amundsen’s) route of the Northwest Passage. Heavy ice cover blocks M’Clure Strait, the west end of the deepwater northern route. While a loose icepack in over the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean allowed the Swedish icebreaker Oden to reach the North Pole, open water areas quickly refroze after the seasonal sea ice minimum, and as of early October, extent had risen to the lower interdecile range of extents in the satellite record.
Figure 1a. Arctic sea ice extent for September 2026 was 4.81 million square kilometers (1.86 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that month. Sea Ice Index data. About the data — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterFigure 1b. This graph shows Arctic sea ice extent as of October 5, 2026, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record low year. 2026 is shown in blue, 2025 in green, 2024 in orange, 2023 in brown, 2022 in magenta, and 2012 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data. — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterConditions in contextAs was the case for all of summer (see summer summary below), low sea level pressure dominated the Arctic Ocean during September, accompanied by below-average temperatures that fostered rapid ice growth (Figure 2a). Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above the surface) were 0 to 1 degree Celsius (0 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit) below average over much of the Arctic Ocean, but strongly above average over northern Eurasia (Figure 2b).
Figure 2a. This plot shows average sea level pressure in the Arctic in hectopascals for September 2026. Yellows and reds indicate high air pressure; blues and purples indicate low pressure. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences LaboratoryFigure 2b. This plot shows the departure from average air temperature in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, for September 2026. Yellows and reds indicate above average temperatures; blues and purples indicate below average temperatures. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences LaboratorySeptember 2026 compared to previous yearsThe downward linear trend in September Arctic sea ice extent through 2026 is 74,100 square kilometers (28,600 square miles) per year or 11.6 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average (Figure 3). Based on the linear trend, since 1979, September has lost 3.24 million square kilometers (1.25 million square miles) of sea ice. This is equivalent to twice the size of Alaska.
Figure 3. Monthly September ice extent for 1979 to 2026 shows a decline of 11.6 percent per decade.
— Credit:
National Snow and Ice Data Center
Regional contributions to September extentFor this monthly post, we present a time series of September monthly ice extents in a new format (Figure 4). The black line depicts the overall trend. Regional differences from average for each year are shown as colored bars for each sector of the Arctic. This presents the data in a way that allows some insight into the contributions to the overall positive or negative September extent difference from average. Since 2007, with few exceptions, differences from average have been negative in all sectors; in the last century, regional differences were more varied. Since 2007, negative differences from average in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas have remained prominent, but their magnitudes have shifted from year to year largely in response to shifting summer weather patterns.
Figure 4. This time series shows Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September as a whole (black line) along with regional differences from the 1981 to 2010 average for every year since 1979.
— Credit:
J. Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center
Spring in the AntarcticAfter reaching its maximum extent on September 14, Antarctic sea ice extent sharply declined, and as of October 6, was close to the record low for the date set in 2023. As was done for the Arctic, a graph presents the September Antarctic sea ice extent time series along with differences from average for each year (Figure 5). While the low extents since 2022 stand out clearly, in each of these low years, extent was above average in some sectors. This stands in sharp contrast to the Arctic. Note how in 2022, extent was above average in the Ross Sea, shifting to below average in 2023. However, during the record maximum extents of 2012 to 2015, nearly all regions showed a positive difference from average.
Figure 5. This time series shows Antarctic sea ice extent for the month of September as a whole (black line) along with regional differences from the 1981 to 2010 average for each year since 1979.
— Credit:
J. Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center
The 2026 summer melt season in summaryThe 2026 melt season in the Arctic was unusual in the extreme. Through most of May, extent was tracking at near record low levels. Starting in June, the pace of ice loss substantially slowed, and the minimum extent, which occurred on September 12, ended up as tenth lowest in the satellite record, tying with 2008, 2010, and 2025. Nevertheless, the loose ice pack on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean, extending nearly to the North Pole, eased the voyage of the Swedish icebreaker Oden to the pole, carrying scientists along with tourists.A highly stormy atmospheric pattern over the central Arctic Ocean attended by cool and cloudy conditions inhibited sea ice melt. A pronounced average low pressure centered near the North Pole lingered in June, July, and August (Figure 6a). While cyclone activity over the central Arctic Ocean tends to be maximized in summer, the persistence of this cyclonic pattern was remarkable. In summer, in “free drift” conditions, where there is little floe-to-floe interaction, cyclonic (counterclockwise) winds promote the spreading of the sea ice cover, which likely accounts for the loose ice conditions just noted. Past research shows that summer cyclones that enter the Arctic Ocean, especially from Eurasia and mature in their passage, develop a cold-cored structure. Each cyclone moving into the region reinforces the persistent cold-cored, low structure, which extends into the tropopause much like a vertical stack. Interestingly, based on the ERA5 reanalysis, despite all the cyclones, summer precipitation over the Arctic Ocean as a whole was not notably above average. The attendant pattern of summer air temperature as a difference from average at the 925 millibar level (about 2,500 feet above the surface) was equally unusual (Figure 6b). When sea ice cover is melting, air temperatures will hover around the freezing point. However, over much of the ocean, temperatures remained below average. This was especially clear in June when melt started late. While temperatures over the ocean reflected the cold-cored nature of cyclone maximum and extensive cloud cover, temperatures on Arctic land were far above average over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, western Europe, and central Eurasia.
Figure 6a. This plot shows average sea level pressure in the Arctic in millibars for June, July, and August. Yellows and reds indicate high air pressure; blues and purples indicate low pressure. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences LaboratoryFigure 6b. This plot shows the departure from average air temperature in the Arctic at the 925 hPa level, in degrees Celsius, for the months of June, July, and August. Yellows and reds indicate above average temperatures; blues and purples indicate below average temperatures. — Credit: NSIDC courtesy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences LaboratoryThe cyclonic pattern persisted through September. After reaching its sea ice minimum on September 12, autumn freeze up was rapid, and as of this post, extent had reached the lowest decile in the satellite record.This cyclonic pattern also played a role in the late melt out of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Unusual compared to recent years, sea ice remained near the Alaskan coast into August, which is near the location of the 1981 to 2010 average. However, the ice melted rapidly and by the end of August, the region was largely ice free in the passive microwave data (though operational ice charts indicated low concentration ice).Relatively cool conditions and cyclonic pressure contributed to the late ice loss. The reason that the ice eventually did melt was because the area was dominated by first-year ice, which is thinner and more susceptible to melt out completely (Figure 6c). Overall, the Arctic sea ice cover has much less multiyear ice and thus is thinner than it was during the 1980s. Since 2007, at the end of the summer melt season, the multiyear extent has varied between 1.3 million and 1.9 million square kilometers (502,000 square miles and 734,000 square miles), significantly lower than the roughly 3.5 million square kilometers (1.35 million square miles) during the 1980s. And since 2012, the oldest, thickest ice (greater than 4-years old) has nearly disappeared, with 250,000 square kilometers (97,000 square miles) or less each year compared to the approximate 1.5 million square kilometers (579,000 square miles) before 2005. While this summer was relatively cool over the Arctic Ocean, the long-term warming trend has resulted in more melt and faster distribution of sea ice, which means that ice is not surviving nearly as long as it used to.
Figure 6c. The top left map shows Arctic sea ice age during the week of March 12 to 18, 2026, the week of the maximum extent; a larger swath of first-year ice extends into the Beaufort Sea, though older ice is found near the coast. The top right map shows Arctic sea ice age during the week of September 3 to 9, 2026, just before the minimum extent; most of the ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas has melted out. The bottom time series shows extent of multiyear ice in black and ice greater than 4-years old in red at the seasonal minimum for 1985 to 2026. The oldest ice (in red) shows substantial decline.
— Credit:
Tschudi et al., 2019a and 2019b
Sea ice in the Antarctic remained below the lowest interdecile range since the beginning of the austral growth season that started in late March 2026, but above the record low of 2023 (Figure 6d). The maximum extent, reached on September 14, was the third lowest in the satellite record, repeating a recent pattern of low maximum extents discussed in more detail above. Since October 2, extent has fallen to record low daily values, surpassing 2023’s records. The post-maximum areas of loss are in the Ross and Amundsen seas, and the Indian Ocean sector (Figure 6e).
Figure 6d. The graph above shows Antarctic sea ice extent as of October 6, 2026, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years and the record 2014 year. 2026 is shown in blue, 2025 in green, 2024 in orange, 2023 in brown, 2022 in magenta, and 2014 in dashed brown. The 1981 to 2010 median is in dark gray. The gray areas around the median line show the interquartile and interdecile ranges of the data. Sea Ice Index data. — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data CenterFigure 6e. Antarctic sea ice extent for September 2026 was 17.32 million square kilometers (6.69 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 average extent for that month. Sea Ice Index data. About the data — Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
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Wed, 10/07/2026 - 14:00
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Wed, 10/07/2026 - 12:00
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Arctic
By Michon Scott
The Arctic Report Card, supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is an annual, peer-reviewed snapshot of environmental conditions north of 60°N. Topics range from air temperature to land and sea ice to changes in marine algae to marine debris left by ship traffic to community monitoring programs.
As far away as the Arctic may seem, it directly affects the United States. “The United States is an Arctic country,” NSIDC Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) scientist Walt Meier said. “Alaska is a part of the Arctic. It is strategically important for national security, for commerce, and there are residents, US citizens, who live in the Arctic.”
In the early 2000s, scientists recognized the need for a comprehensive Arctic assessment. The Arctic Council—an international group of Arctic states and Indigenous peoples—commissioned the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. The assessment was published in 2004, with contributions from hundreds of researchers worldwide. However, the report took years to produce. As Arctic change accelerated, scientists needed to supplement such resource-intensive assessments with more frequent updates. This led to the Arctic Report Card: an annual report designed to balance scientific rigor with timeliness and accessibility.
NOAA issued the first annual Arctic Report Card in 2006. Arctic Report Card 2025, published this past December, is the twentieth edition of the annual report. Since its inception, the Arctic Report Card has relied upon NSIDC scientists as authors and/or editors nearly every year, and incorporated NSIDC data in every single issue. NSIDC’s science and data expertise has been integral to monitoring Earth’s dynamic northernmost latitudes.
A wildflower blooms on the tundra at Denali National Park, Alaska. — Credit: Keven Schaefer A fast-changing, relevant regionThe Arctic has a substantial impact on people living at lower latitudes. “A good analogy for the Arctic is that it’s like an air conditioning or water supply system in your office or home. You might not pay that much attention to it, but it’s providing really important services in keeping you cool or keeping you watered,” said NSIDC deputy lead scientist Twila Moon. Snow and ice in the Arctic reflect solar radiation back into space, helping regulate global temperatures. Arctic glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet also store vast amounts of water that would otherwise raise global sea levels.
To assume that the services the Arctic provides will continue unabated would be a mistake, given how rapidly the region is changing. Scientists call this accelerated warming “Arctic amplification.” As the planet warms, the Arctic warms even faster. Multiple factors drive this amplification, including the transport of warm air from the tropics, and the loss of sunlight-reflecting snow and ice across the Arctic. As the Arctic Report Card authors reported in December 2025, the Arctic is quickly changing:
As temperatures rise, Arctic wildlife struggles:
Human impacts are just as significant:
To track these changes, every Arctic Report Card now devotes a chapter to each of the following:
In addition to the chapters that appear every year, each Arctic Report Card highlights emerging issues such as glacier changes, ecosystem shifts, and notable environmental events. Each report spans the “water year” (October 1 through September 30) capturing the full cycle from winter freeze to summer melt. The water year also works well for reporting Arctic wintertime conditions since it avoids splitting the Northern Hemisphere winter into separate reports.
NSIDC’s support for monitoringNSIDC has played a key role in Arctic reporting for decades. NSIDC founding director Roger Barry and current NSIDC director Mark Serreze both contributed to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment published in 2004. Serreze contributed to the Arctic Report Card for years afterward, including the 2025 report. “Once I became involved, I realized this is a good thing because I can use my expertise, and the report is a good service to the community,” he said.
Since NOAA began issuing annual Arctic Report Cards, Serreze and multiple other NSIDC scientists have contributed, among them Richard Armstrong, Matthew Druckenmiller, Noor Johnson, Walt Meier, Twila Moon, and Julienne Stroeve. Druckenmiller and Moon have served as report editors in recent years.
NSIDC data have been cited in every issue of the Arctic Report Card since its inception, supporting both analysis and long-term climate records. Report authors have relied upon data sets from both the NSIDC Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) and the NSIDC National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration program (NOAA@NSIDC). Key NSIDC-supported data used in the report include:
The earliest Arctic Report Cards incorporated sea ice data sets distributed by NSIDC, and this naturally led to NSIDC’s involvement in authoring the report. “Because NSIDC has the sea ice data, [early report editors] thought it appropriate to have someone in the NSIDC provide that,” Meier said.
How the report card comes togetherThe Arctic Report Card follows a structured annual process:
Despite the tight timeline, the report maintains rigorous scientific standards while delivering timely insights.
The Arctic Report Card has three editors, but among those, there is always a lead editor who, among other duties, unveils the report at the press conference. “We rotate through who acts as lead editor each year,” Moon explained. “The wonderful thing about having our multiple-editor team is that we all have different strengths, and certainly, the sum is greater than its parts in very positive ways.” Though one editor rotates through the lead position each year, they collaborate, for instance on summary articles in The Conversation, or in reaching out to Congress. In January 2026, Druckenmiller and Moon participated in four closed-door Senate briefings.
The 2021 Arctic Report Card discussed colonization of the Arctic tundra by North American beavers. This photo shows a beaver lodge and dam on western Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. — Credit: Ken Tape A sound investment in the futureAs the Arctic becomes more central to global climate, economics, and geopolitics, the need for timely, trusted information continues to grow. Serreze said, “The Arctic is on the forefront of climate change, not just in terms of the physical changes, but also how it is all getting tied into politics and economics and geopolitics.”
The region’s rapid pace of change and the growing political interest both reinforce the need for timeliness, and timeliness sets the Arctic Report Card apart from some other documents. For instance, every year, the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (BAMS) publishes its State of the Climate (SotC) report for the previous year. An international team of experts puts together the annual, peer-reviewed report spanning all aspects of Earth’s climate and running to several hundred pages. These reports are comprehensive but often delayed, making timely updates like the Arctic Report Card especially valuable.
“Something that's unique about the Arctic Report Card is that it comes out every year, broadly at the end of the year that is being discussed,” Moon said. “There are a lot of groups that rely on it as that early prompt, dependable, and peer-reviewed resource.” Moon also emphasized the report’s accessibility. “It’s important to us that the pieces are relatively succinct, and we work hard to make them understandable to the non-specialist.” Moon continued, “It's about having an Arctic-aware citizenry and an Arctic-aware and prepared workforce.”
Part of that effort for maximal usability is the new feature that came online with the 2025 report card edition: the Arctic Report Card Data Dashboard. The dashboard allows users to explore Arctic data interactively through a web browser.
A new feature with the 2025 edition of the Arctic Report Card is a data dashboard. — Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Along with their pride in what the Arctic Report Card has already provided, NSIDC contributors to the annual report hope for future enhancements. NSIDC contributors all share a desire to expand the report’s offerings, so that features that currently run every few years, such as glacier changes, might feature more often. Authors also hope to improve cross-links between report chapters, for instance, between surface air temperatures, sea ice extent, and ocean primary productivity. “We do have cross-referencing now,” Meier explained, “but the report chapters are maybe not as integrated as they could be. It is difficult to do on such a short timeline.”
Still, many of the hopes for the future are largely to stay the course. “Continuing to keep this truly an international report, in terms of the topics covered, the contributing authors, and the dissemination of the report,” Druckenmiller remarked, touching upon a desire for better reach in Europe. He also hopes congressional outreach continues.
The Arctic may feel distant, but its impacts are increasingly close to home. The Arctic Report Card helps make those connections clear, translating complex science into insight people can act on. As Moon described, its mission is “continuing to help people understand why we care about the Arctic, and how those impacts are making it to their doorstep, both within the Arctic and far from it.”
| # | Наименование новости | Тональность | Информативность | Дата публикации |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navigating New Ways of Arctic Research | 0 | 9.71 | 10-09-2026 |
| 2 | NSIDC turns 50 | 0 | 11.4 | 14-09-2026 |
| 3 | Arctic sea ice record low maximum strikes again | 0 | 9.3 | 26-03-2026 |
| 4 | Selected publications by NSIDC researchers | 0 | 9.92 | 12-09-2026 |
| 5 | Antarctic sea ice extent arrives at a near-average minimum | 0 | 9.8 | 07-03-2026 |
| 6 | Fifty years of change in the cryosphere | 0 | 9.5 | 19-08-2026 |
| 7 | Arctic sea ice has reached minimum extent for 2026; Antarctic sea ice maximum most likely reached as well | 0 | 9.59 | 22-09-2026 |
| 8 | To see or not to see: The reality of sea level rise | 0 | 9.1 | 01-10-2026 |
| 9 | Длительность сезона таяния в Арктике стабилизировалась | 0 | 20.5 | 25-09-2026 |
| 10 | Melting Icebergs Can Weaken a Massive, Far-Off Ocean Current System | 0 | 25.65 | 13-07-2026 |