Two years after Kamala Harris’ unsuccessful run for president, a rising share of Americans say it’s unlikely a woman will be elected president in their lifetime.

Some 37% of Americans now say it’s not too or not at all likely that the United States will elect a woman as president, up from 26% in 2023, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

The share who say it’s extremely or very likely has fallen from 25% in 2023 to 17% today. Another 44% say it’s somewhat likely, down from 49%.

Among men and women and Democrats and Republicans alike, relatively few Americans say it’s highly likely that a woman will be president in their lifetime.

At the same time, the share of Americans who say it’s extremely or very important to them personally that the U.S. elects a woman president is unchanged from 2023, with 18% saying this in each survey. Most (66%) say it’s either not important to them or that the gender of the president doesn’t matter. Another 16% say it’s somewhat important.

This Pew Research Center analysis looks at whether Americans think it’s likely that a woman will be elected president in their lifetime, as well as whether it’s personally important to them.

Pew Research Center does research to help the public, the media and decision-makers understand important topics. This research builds on our work on gender and political leadership.

We surveyed 3,554 U.S. adults from July 6 to 12, 2026. Everyone who took part is a member of the Center’s American Trends Panel. The survey represents the views of all U.S. adults.

Here are the survey questions used for this analysis, the detailed responses and the survey methodology.

While Democrats and Republicans have similar views on the likelihood of a woman president, they differ widely in seeing this as personally important. Three-in-ten Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say it’s extremely or very important to them that a woman is elected president in their lifetime. This compares with just 5% of Republicans and GOP leaners.

Most Republicans (87%) say electing a woman as president is not too or not at all important to them or that the president’s gender doesn’t matter. Fewer than half of Democrats (46%) say the same.

Women are more likely than men (22% vs. 12%) to say it’s highly important to them that a woman is elected president. Still, majorities of men and women (73% and 60%) say it’s not important to them or the president’s gender doesn’t matter.

Democratic women are especially likely to say it’s extremely or very important to them that a woman is elected president: 37% say this, compared with 22% of Democratic men. Only 6% of Republican women, compared with 3% of Republican men, say this is highly important to them.

Among those who say it’s highly important to them that a woman is elected president, 30% say this is extremely or very likely to happen in their lifetime. Another 30% say it’s not too or not at all likely, while 40% say it’s somewhat likely. In turn, those who say electing a woman president is less important to them are more skeptical it will happen.

Note: Here are the survey questions used for this analysis, the detailed responses and the survey methodology.

Rachel Minkin is a senior researcher focusing on social and demographic trends research at Pew Research Center.