Will Anderson #51 of the Houston Texans warms up prior to the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium on September 27, 2026 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Getty Images

Football: it’s a way of life and a religion in Texas.

In three weeks of NFL action, that sanctity has made for one collective win between both of its pro teams.

The Cowboys and Texans will now clash in a critical chance for both franchises to get their seasons back on track. 

Dallas must regroup after an emotionally draining affair against the Ravens in Rio de Janeiro, where they lost by a field goal in a shootout.

They become the first team in NFL history to travel at least 5,000 miles for a game without receiving extra rest afterward.

The Texans welcome them, thirsty for their first win.

Houston led in the fourth quarter against Indianapolis before surrendering the decisive field goal with fewer than two minutes remaining.

Cowboys vs. Texans prediction, best bet

This matchup pits Houston’s suspicious offense against Dallas’ leaky defense. Altogether, the matchup results in a 3.5-point spread favoring Houston.

We just have to evaluate which deficiency is worse. 

The Cowboys rank dead last in both defensive EPA per play and success rate, surrendering 6.0 yards per snap. They’ve survived that problem because Dak Prescott and the offense have scored at least 30 points in consecutive games

Dak Prescott looks to dig the Cowboys out of a 1-2 start. REUTERS

As anemic as this Texans offense is while averaging 18 points per game, C.J. Stroud has still thrown for 265 yards per game without an interception. 

For one thing, Stroud has been missing his top target, Nico Collins over the last two weeks. The two-time Pro Bowler returned to practice this week from a hamstring injury, and if he is cleared, he would enhance Houston’s ability to exploit a battered Dallas secondary — now without safeties P.J. Locke and Jalen Thompson.

Houston’s defense hasn’t resembled its dominant units of recent seasons, but Will Anderson still has four sacks.

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The Texans hammered Dallas 34-10 when these teams last met in 2024, and the Cowboys have failed to cover each of the past two meetings. 

Stroud and the Texans routinely struggle in September before hitting a stride, so expect a bounce-back effort to preserve their season. 

THE PLAY: Texans -3.5 (+100, BetMGM)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.