Don't be surprised to see a billion-dollar structural gap become a reality.
3 min read
Rep. Ken Fredette represents House District 33 in the Maine Legislature, previously served as the House Republican leader and is a graduate of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
Here are the cold hard facts: For the past eight years, the budget to operate state government has grown by billions of dollars, now currently at roughly $12 billion.
Now, expect on Sept. 30, 2026, that the state budget officer delivers a new forecast showing the structural gap — the difference between anticipated revenues and expenses — for the next budget cycle starting on July 1, 2027. I predict the structural gap will approach $1 billion between the General Fund and Highway Fund budgets for the next two years.
We need to do better.
State spending on education represents about 40% of the state budget. School budgets continue to grow, even while the number of students attending Maine public schools has declined by over 10,000 students since 2018. And even with increased public spending on schools and declining student enrollments, statewide test results show falling test scores.
The other major cost driver is the Department of Health and Human Services. As I sat on the Appropriations Committee in Augusta during the past two years, I heard DHHS leadership reveal that costs are increasing due to three factors: utilization of medical services, the rising costs of medical services and the number of people on the state’s Medicaid program, MaineCare.
And even with this increase in state spending, hospitals are closing, birthing centers are closing and patients are increasingly finding it difficult to find a primary care provider.
These increases do not even include the growing cost of municipal and county government and the increases in taxes associated with our local government. Then, look at your electric bill and most Mainers are shocked by the cost of electricity, which is overseen by legislators in Augusta. And the transportation budget simply does not have a sustainable and sufficient source of funding.
Now let me be clear on this: Democrats have had complete political control in Augusta since 2019, controlling the governorship, the state Senate and the Maine House of Representatives. State budgets, tax increases and fee increases have been passed in Augusta by the majority party for nearly eight years now. We can do better.
This is not sustainable. Government is not working for the people who elect our political leadership in Augusta. What I can also predict is this: taxes, fees and raiding the state’s Rainy Day Fund will likely happen again.
None of this has solved or will solve the structural problems in our state with education, DHHS and other basic governmental services.
I am a lifelong Mainer. I’ve raised children in Maine. I just retired from the military here, from the Maine Air National Guard. I’ve operated businesses here for over three decades and owned real estate. But what I have seen is that our cities and coastlines have become more blue, while our rural areas have become more red. The differences between our southern counties and the rest of the state feel greater, while the rising cost of housing makes it harder for people to build a life here.
We, as Mainers, as political leaders and as citizens of our great state, can do better and must do better in order to leave our state better for the next generation. For that reason, I hope when you vote on Nov. 3, you remember how you want your political leaders in Augusta to work over the next two years: together, or following the “go-it-alone” route we’ve had for the past eight years.
You get the government you deserve.
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