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Post-VMAs, post-‘Patient Zero’ Taylor Swift’s Grammy odds fall after a weekend of headlines
Дата публикации: 28-09-2026 19:30:00
New music and a special made-for-MTV honor haven't done much for The Life of a Showgirl.
Основное содержимое страницы с новостью.
After taking a step back from the spotlight following her Madison Square Garden wedding, Taylor Swift reemerged in mid-August for an interview and performance at the Grammy Museum. In the month that followed, she would make plans for a CMA Awards return in November, release four new songs on a deluxe edition of her latest album, The Life of a Showgirl, and accept an honorary award at the MTV Video Music Awards, where she also took home the top prize, Video of the Year.
The flurry of appearances and news hits put Swift and her music back at the forefront of the conversation in a way that she hasn't musically been since Showgirl dropped toward the end of 2025, but after all of that publicity, her Grammy odds in top categories are actually down, according to Gold Derby's combined predictions.
While within nomination range for Album of the Year, Record of the Year, and Song of the Year, Swift sits toward the middle of the pack in each category and is down several percentage points compared to the previous week.
Grammy Nominations 2027
Contender
Odds
1.
Olivia Rodrigo
97.7%
2.
Olivia Dean
97.5%
3.
Bruno Mars
86.3%
4.
Raye
84.0%
5.
Rosalia
83.0%
6.
Taylor Swift
73.6%
7.
Madonna
67.8%
8.
Noah Kahan
54.1%
9.
Phoebe Bridgers
44.4%
10.
Ella Langley
34.8%
11.
Harry Styles
13.2%
12.
Ariana Grande
6.6%
13.
Tame Impala
6.1%
14.
Kacey Musgraves
5.3%
15.
Brandi Carlile
5.3%
16.
Geese
5.1%
17.
Charli XCX
2.5%
18.
Jacob Collier
2.5%
19.
Jill Scott
2.0%
20.
Slayyyter
2.0%
21.
Lily Allen
1.8%
22.
Sienna Spiro
1.5%
23.
Zara Larsson
1.5%
24.
Kehlani
1.3%
25.
Paul McCartney
1.0%
26.
J. Cole
1.0%
27.
Mavis Staples
0.8%
28.
Cardi B
0.8%
29.
Robyn
0.5%
30.
PinkPantheress
0.5%
31.
Charli XCX
0.5%
32.
Megan Thee Stallion
0.3%
33.
Megan Moroney
0.3%
34.
Don Toliver
0.3%
35.
Doja Cat
0.3%
36.
Rolling Stones
0.3%
37.
Madison Beer
0.3%
38.
Ringo Starr
0.3%
39.
Nas
0.3%
40.
The Last Dinner Party
0.3%
41.
Lana Del Rey
0.3%
42.
Twenty One Pilots
0.3%
43.
Charlie Puth
0.3%
44.
Gracie Abrams
0.3%
45.
Portugal. The Man
--
46.
Future
--
47.
Mariah Carey
--
48.
Silvana Estrada
--
49.
Niall Horan
--
50.
Summer Walker
--
51.
Zayn
Stephen Lovekin/Variety
Zayn
--
52.
illenium
imageSPACE / MEGA
Illenium
--
53.
Dave Grohl of Foo Fighters
Andy Keilen for Rolling Stone
Foo Fighters
--
54.
tyla nbc sq
NBC
Tyla
--
55.
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Fairchild Archive/Penske Media
Death Cab for Cutie
--
56.
Willie Nelson
James Michin III for Rolling Stone
Willie Nelson
--
57.
zach bryan sq pmc
Gilbert Flores for PMC
Zach Bryan
--
58.
Blackpink sq
YG Entertainment
Blackpink
--
59.
LONDON, ENGLAND - MARCH 01: (EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Jade Thirlwall poses in the winners room with Pop Act award during The BRIT Awards 2025 at The O2 Arena on March 01, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by John Phillips/Getty Images)
John Phillips/Getty Images
Jade
--
60.
Ari Lennox
Michael Buckner/Variety
Ari Lennox
--
61.
arlo parks
NBC
Arlo Parks
--
62.
ASAP Rocky
ABC
ASAP Rocky
--
63.
big thief sq getty
Emma McIntyre/Getty Images for FYF
Big Thief
--
64.
celeste
ABC
Celeste
--
65.
daniel caesar sq pmc
Brian Friedman for Variety
Daniel Caesar
--
66.
danny brown sq pmc
Coen Rees for Rolling Stone
Danny Brown
--
67.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - DECEMBER 09: David Byrne attends the "The Testament of Ann Lee" New York special screening at Crosby Hotel on December 09, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Valerie Terranova/Getty Images for Searchlight Pictures)
Valerie Terranova/Getty Images
David Byrne
--
68.
Madison McGaw/BFA/REX/Shutterstock
De La Soul
--
69.
demi lovato sq abc
ABC/Randy Holmes
Demi Lovato
--
70.
Ed Sheeran sq
Mark Surridge/Ed Sheeran
Ed Sheeran
--
71.
FKA Twigs at the premiere of “The Crow” held at The Village East by Angelika on August 20, 2024 in New York City.
John Nacion/Variety
FKA Twigs
--
72.
florence welch and the machine sq pmc
Swan Gallet/WWD
Florence and the Machine
--
73.
Gorillaz
News Licensing / MEGA
Gorillaz
--
74.
offset sq pmc
Christopher Polk for Variety
Offset
--
75.
james blake
Chelsea Lauren/Variety
James Blake
--
76.
justin bieber
Courtesy of Mike Rosenthal
Justin Bieber
--
77.
kelsea ballerini sq
Chelsea Lauren/Variety
Kelsea Ballerini
--
78.
khalid
Courtesy of Grace Pickering/Khalid
Khalid
--
79.
NBC
The Kid Laroi
--
80.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JANUARY 30: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) King Princess attends the 2026 MusiCares Person of the Year Honoring Mariah Carey at Los Angeles Convention Center on January 30, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
Frazer Harrison/Getty Images
King Princess
--
81.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - JUNE 30: (L-R) Leon Thomas III and Ty Dolla Sign attend the 2024 BET Awards at Peacock Theater on June 30, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Bennett Raglin/Getty Images for BET)
Bennett Raglin/Getty Images
Leon Thomas
--
82.
Luke Combs
Lexie Moreland/WWD
Luke Combs
--
83.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 02: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Madison Cunningham attends the 67th GRAMMY Awards on February 02, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
Frazer Harrison/Getty Images
Madison Cunningham
--
84.
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 08: The Alchemist attends BET Hip Hop Awards 2024 at Drai’s Beach Club – Nightclub at The Cromwell Las Vegas on October 08, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Mindy Small/Getty Images)
Mindy Small/Getty Images
The Alchemist
--
85.
mitski
Leann Mueller/Mitski
Mitski
--
86.
Mon Laferte sq
Koury Angelo for Rolling Stone
Mon Laferte
--
87.
Mumford and Sons
NBC
Mumford and Sons
--
88.
nathy peluso
MEGA
Nathy Peluso
--
Given Swift's history at the Grammys, her safest category is the least surprising. The Life of a Showgirl's standing in Album of the Year is unchanged. It's an award Swift has won four times, most recently in 2024 for Midnights. She previously took home the honor for Folklore, 1989, and Fearless.
Album of the Year is also the only of the top awards that Swift has previously won. Despite eight nominations in Song of the Year and six nominations in Record of the Year, she has never won in those categories, and those are the ones where she's losing ground.
Grammy Nominations 2027
Contender
Odds
1.
Olivia Dean
98.0%
2.
Raye
96.3%
3.
Taylor Swift
89.6%
4.
Bruno Mars
87.9%
5.
Ella Langley
82.9%
6.
Olivia Rodrigo
70.2%
7.
PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson
65.2%
8.
Tame Impala
58.7%
9.
Rosalia, Bjork, Yves Tumor
30.9%
10.
Ariana Grande
19.1%
11.
Olivia Rodrigo
18.0%
12.
Noah Kahan
14.6%
13.
Beyonce
7.9%
14.
Madonna
7.3%
15.
Harry Styles
7.0%
16.
Olivia Rodrigo
4.5%
17.
Phoebe Bridgers
3.9%
18.
Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter
3.1%
19.
Sienna Spiro
3.1%
20.
Sabrina Carpenter
2.8%
21.
Brandi Carlile
2.0%
22.
Olivia Dean
2.0%
23.
Charli XCX
1.7%
24.
Taylor Swift
1.4%
25.
Bruno Mars
1.1%
26.
Bruce Springsteen
1.1%
27.
Sabrina Carpenter
0.8%
28.
Paul McCartney
0.6%
29.
Lady Gaga and Doechii
0.6%
30.
Lady Gaga
0.6%
31.
Doja Cat
0.6%
32.
Rosalia, Yahritza y Su Esencia
0.6%
33.
Zayn
0.3%
34.
Doechii and SZA
0.3%
35.
Rolling Stones
0.3%
36.
Shakira and Burna Boy
0.3%
37.
Sombr
0.3%
38.
Sabrina Carpenter
0.3%
39.
Gener8ion
0.3%
40.
Lisa
--
41.
Teyana Taylor and Lucky Daye
--
42.
French Montana and Max B
--
43.
Shakira and Anitta
--
44.
Tate McRae
--
45.
Niall Horan
--
46.
Dave and Tems
--
47.
David Guetta, Teddy Swims, Tones and I
--
48.
EsDeeKid
--
49.
Huntr/X
--
50.
Kacey Musgraves
--
51.
KATSEYE
Gilbert Flores/Variety
Katseye
--
52.
lainey wilson sq abc
ABC/Robby Klein
Lainey Wilson
--
53.
INDIO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 12: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Lil Uzi Vert performs at the Coachella Stage during the 2024 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival at Empire Polo Club on April 12, 2024 in Indio, California. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images for Coachella)
Arturo Holmes/Getty Images
Lil Uzi Vert
--
54.
Mariah Carey
ABC
Mariah Carey
--
55.
Megan Thee Stallion
Stephane Feugere for WWD
Megan Thee Stallion
--
56.
LONDON, ENGLAND - JANUARY 29: Olivia Dean attends the "Bridget Jones: Mad About The Boy" World Premiere at the Odeon Luxe Leicester Square on January 29, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Kate Green/Getty Images)
Kate Green/Getty Images
Olivia Dean and Sam Fender
--
57.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - FEBRUARY 14: Robyn attends SNL50: The Homecoming Concert at Radio City Music Hall on February 14, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images
Robyn
--
58.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 24: Sienna Spiro visits SiriusXM Studios on March 24, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images
Sienna Spiro
--
59.
tate mcrae sq pmc
Christopher Polk/Billboard
Tate McRae
--
60.
tyla nbc sq
NBC
Tyla
--
61.
u2 sq pmc
Michael Buckner for Variety
U2
--
62.
Blackpink sq
YG Entertainment
Blackpink
--
63.
death cab for cutie sq pmc
Fairchild Archive/Penske Media
Death Cab for Cutie
--
64.
florence welch and the machine sq pmc
Swan Gallet/WWD
Florence and the Machine
--
65.
Dave Grohl of Foo Fighters
Andy Keilen for Rolling Stone
Foo Fighters
--
66.
illenium
imageSPACE / MEGA
Illenium
--
At the time of publishing, Swift is down 3% in both Song of the Year and Record of the Year, week-over-week. But even with the drops, she's in a relatively comfortable position within each for a nomination. Record of the Year is currently the stronger of the two categories for her, with Swift occupying the third-place slot behind Olivia Dean's "The Man I Need" and Raye's "Where Is My Husband."
Meanwhile, Song of the Year finds Swift in the back half of likely nominees. She's currently in sixth place, between Bruno Mars' "I Just Might" and Olivia Rodrigo's "The Cure."
Grammy Nominations 2027
Contender
Odds
1.
Olivia Dean
95.9%
2.
Raye
94.7%
3.
Ella Langley
90.4%
4.
Olivia Rodrigo
89.2%
5.
Bruno Mars
74.3%
6.
Taylor Swift
69.6%
7.
Noah Kahan
59.6%
8.
PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson
39.2%
9.
Taylor Swift
27.8%
10.
Sienna Spiro
22.2%
11.
Bruce Springsteen
17.5%
12.
Bruno Mars
12.6%
13.
Tame Impala
11.7%
14.
Rosalia, Bjork, Yves Tumor
9.9%
15.
Phoebe Bridgers
9.6%
16.
Ariana Grande
8.8%
17.
Olivia Rodrigo
7.6%
18.
Harry Styles
5.8%
19.
Kacey Musgraves
5.6%
20.
Beyonce
3.8%
21.
Olivia Dean
3.8%
22.
Madonna
2.9%
23.
Brandi Carlile
2.6%
24.
Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter
2.3%
25.
Paul McCartney
2.0%
26.
Olivia Dean and Sam Fender
1.8%
27.
Rosalia, Yahritza y Su Esencia
1.8%
28.
Olivia Rodrigo
1.5%
29.
Robyn
0.9%
30.
Sabrina Carpenter
0.9%
31.
Sombr
0.6%
32.
Gener8ion
0.6%
33.
Charli XCX
0.6%
34.
Lady Gaga and Doechii
0.6%
35.
Florence and the Machine
0.3%
36.
Rolling Stones
0.3%
37.
Lady Gaga
0.3%
38.
Katseye
0.3%
39.
Shakira and Burna Boy
0.3%
40.
Tate McRae
0.3%
41.
Sabrina Carpenter
0.3%
42.
French Montana and Max B
--
43.
Teyana Taylor and Lucky Daye
--
44.
Lisa
--
45.
Tate McRae
--
46.
Lainey Wilson
--
47.
David Guetta, Teddy Swims, Tones and I
--
48.
Sabrina Carpenter
--
49.
Niall Horan
--
50.
Megan Thee Stallion
--
51.
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 24: Sienna Spiro visits SiriusXM Studios on March 24, 2025 in New York City. (Photo by Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images)
Dia Dipasupil/Getty Images
Sienna Spiro
--
52.
tyla nbc sq
NBC
Tyla
--
53.
u2 sq pmc
Michael Buckner for Variety
U2
--
54.
Zayn
Stephen Lovekin/Variety
Zayn
--
55.
MILAN, ITALY - FEBRUARY 27: EsDeeKid (C) attends the Gucci FW26 Fashion Show at Palazzo Delle Scintille on February 27, 2026 in Milan, Italy. (Photo by Victor Boyko/Getty Images for Gucci)
Victor Boyko/Getty Images
EsDeeKid
--
56.
NEWARK, NEW JERSEY - OCTOBER 29: Tems attends Powerhouse NYC on October 29, 2022 in Newark, New Jersey. (Photo by Dave Kotinsky/Getty Images for iHeartRadio)
Dave Kotinsky/Getty Images
Dave and Tems
--
57.
anitta sq pmc
Roger Kisby for WWD
Shakira and Anitta
--
58.
doechii sq pmc
Christopher Polk for Variety
Doechii and SZA
--
59.
doja cat sq pmc
Brian Friedman for Variety
Doja Cat
--
60.
Huntr/X
Alberto E. Rodriguez/Getty Images
Huntr/X
--
61.
INDIO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 12: (FOR EDITORIAL USE ONLY) Lil Uzi Vert performs at the Coachella Stage during the 2024 Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival at Empire Polo Club on April 12, 2024 in Indio, California. (Photo by Arturo Holmes/Getty Images for Coachella)
Arturo Holmes/Getty Images
Lil Uzi Vert
--
62.
Mariah Carey
ABC
Mariah Carey
--
63.
Blackpink sq
YG Entertainment
Blackpink
--
64.
death cab for cutie sq pmc
Fairchild Archive/Penske Media
Death Cab for Cutie
--
65.
Dave Grohl of Foo Fighters
Andy Keilen for Rolling Stone
Foo Fighters
--
66.
illenium
imageSPACE / MEGA
Illenium
--
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