We're still in the early days of the awards race, but, based on the Gold Derby prediction data, most of the slots in the 10-film Best Picture field are already accounted for. That means there are a dozen would-be contenders vying for the remaining spots and the competition is intense.

The top seven films on the leaderboard are The Odyssey, La Bola Negra, Wild Horse Nine, The Debut, Project Hail Mary, Dune: Part Three, and The Invite, all comfortably with 80% or better odds of securing a nomination, according to Gold Derby's experts, a group comprising film journalists, critics, and professional pundits.

The picture grows cloudier at No. 8, where Fjord is currently staked out. Cristian Mungiu's drama starring former Oscar nominees Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve seemed a shoo-in following its Palm d'Or win at Cannes, but has polarized audiences as subsequent screenings. It has dipped 10 percentage points over the past week and now has about a 54% chance at a Best Picture bid.

Obsession follows at No. 9, with a 43% chance for a nomination, up 11 percentage points. Curry Barker's hit horror film, starring Inde Navarrette and Michael Johnston, has emerged as one of the season's more intriguing breakout contenders. Despite its blockbuster box office and strong reviews, this ranking seems more like a placeholder, especially with several films yet to be screened for wider audiences.

There's currently a three-way tie at No. 10. Helmed by four-time Oscar winner Alejandro González Iñárritu and starring Tom Cruise, John Goodman, Sandra Hüller, Jesse Plemons, and Riz Ahmed, Digger had better than 90% odds at the beginning of September. But the dark comedy has taken a noticeable hit following divisive industry screenings in New York and Los Angeles, with its odds nose-diving to 39%. That matches the odds for two fast-rising recent festival favorites: Elsinore (up 23 percentage points) and I Play Rocky (up 15 percentage points). Considering their trajectories, I Play Rocky and Elsinore could both find themselves in the Top 10 once the dust settles.

However, there are months to go and a trio of other films within striking distance. Cannes breakout Club Kid and the upcoming New York Film Festival premiere Behemoth! both have a 25% shot at a nomination, with another Cannes winner, Ryusuke Hamaguchi's All of a Sudden, close behind at 21%.

Further down the board are two rising films with better than 10% odds that cannot be written off: Being Heumann (up 11%) and Possible Love (up 3%). Beyond that, there are a handful of films that have some expert support — including Artificial, Michael, Minotaur, Paper Tiger, Primetime — and a pair of high-profile wild cards that have yet to be seen in Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning and the David Fincher-directed, Quentin Tarantino-written, Brad Pitt-starring The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth.

Keep watching this space for the latest updates in what is sure to be a very competitive, very fluid awards season.