An estimated 645 million people worldwide face hunger. When disruptions occur, they reverberate far beyond an immediate conflict zone.

The global food market faces the impact of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, the war in the Middle East and the incoming El Niño. While everyone is affected, the most vulnerable countries, communities and persons are least able to absorb another shock to food prices and supplies.

Russia's continued attacks on Ukraine - targeting its ports, shipping lanes, warehouses, inland logistics and agricultural infrastructure - are no longer just a war on Ukraine.

Before Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine supplied 10% of the world's wheat, 15% of its corn, and 50% of its sunflower oil.

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Now, as Ukraine enters its 2026 harvest season, Russia's attacks have halved grain exports compared with 2025. By October, Ukraine may run out of storage - leaving more than nine million tonnes of grain to rot while farmers lack the resources to plant the next season's crops.

A lost 2026 harvest will have a ripple effect on global food supply well into 2027 - squandering the potential of some of the world's most fertile, carbon-rich and deeply layered soil.

By blocking Ukraine's trade routes, Russia drives up food prices and makes life harder for millions of vulnerable people across the globe - not just in Ukraine, but in places like Gaza, Sudan and many more.

Fragile economies on the brink

Disruptions to trade, energy and fertiliser markets - compounded by crises such as the war in the Middle East - are pushing fragile economies to the brink.

El Niño will induce a rainfall...