Synopsis

Oil prices have surged towards $100 a barrel due to rising tensions in the Middle East, where recent attacks have threatened shipping routes. The seizure of a Yemeni port by Iran-aligned Houthis raises concerns about Red Sea traffic and the critical Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that if threats escalate, oil prices could spike to $120 a barrel, indicating sustained high costs as shipping remains uncertain.

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Oil prices rose again on Friday, with both major benchmarks on track to finish the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-May. This rise occurred as increased attacks along key Middle East shipping routes heightened concerns about a prolonged disruption to oil supplies.

Iran-aligned Houthis took control of Yemen's port of Mocha on Thursday, creating another threat to shipping through the Red Sea. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz also remains restricted, with tanker attacks in the region intensifying in recent days.

Brent crude futures gained $1, or 1%, to $108 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 95 cents, also 1%, to $103.45 a barrel. Both benchmarks had jumped more than 6% on Thursday. For the week, the two benchmarks were up nearly 13%, putting them on course for their strongest weekly gain since the week ended July 17.

The attacks from Yemen on Saudi energy facilities have widened the scope of the conflict beyond Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns that disruptions could persist across the wider region.

Also read: Trump says he has ‘no regret’ over Iran war, vows conflict will end after midterms

US President Donald Trump warned that the US could strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, near its heavily damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility. He also said the war would end after the November midterm elections.

Iran said it attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after the US struck five Iranian oil tankers. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would step up its response to any further attacks.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said the latest move in oil prices reflected a combination of physical supply tightness and a geopolitical risk premium. "Right now the risk premium is doing a lot of the heavy lifting," he told Reuters. Waterer expects oil prices to remain elevated while the Strait of Hormuz stays contested and diplomatic efforts remain fragile.

The risks for oil prices are increasingly tilted to the upside as the possibility of further disruption grows. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said the attacks in recent days suggested that shipping disruptions could spread and become more severe.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could rise to as much as $120 a barrel if attacks on Middle Eastern vessels intensify. If exports return to normal, however, the bank expects oil prices to move back towards $80 a barrel. Struyven told Bloomberg that risks to shipping had become an important driver for oil prices.

Struyven said Goldman Sachs sees "meaningful upside to crude oil prices" and also expects natural gas and refined product prices to increase. He said supply shocks in gas and fuels are larger than those in the crude market.

How long the disruption lasts will be crucial for oil prices. JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of disruption could add around $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices. If the disruption lasts three months, the bank expects average monthly Brent prices to reach around $114 a barrel.

Read more: Iranian arms and advice helped Yemen's Houthis seize key Red Sea city, sources say

Citi has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from $80, citing a longer-than-expected timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

ANZ analysts have also increased their short-term Brent forecast to $95 a barrel and warned that prices could rise further if the Middle East conflict escalates. They said a prolonged standoff involving calibrated military action by the US and Iran appeared to be the most likely scenario, which could delay the return of full Middle Eastern supply.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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