Judging by the preliminary results, Russia’s new State Duma will look remarkably similar to the old one, after this weekend’s elections. Yet amid dramatically different domestic and international circumstances, that continuity is perhaps the most notable result of all.

The 2026 result has produced some changes, but the new is considerably less significant than the familiar.

Turnout, at around 57%, was the highest in a State Duma election for a decade, although hardly unprecedented as participation exceeded 60% four times in earlier elections.

United Russia was the clearest beneficiary, taking almost 58% of the party-list vote, up sharply from 49.8% in 2021. Even so, it remained below the party’s record 64.3% in 2007, during Vladimir Putin’s second presidential term. 

The Communists again established themselves as Russia’s principal opposition party, comfortably finishing second with almost 14%, but that represented a significant retreat from their roughly 19% in 2021, and was far removed from the turbulent 1990s, when the party could attract almost a quarter of the electorate.

The ultra-nationalist LDPR improved from 7.55% to about 8.8%, but its hopes of overtaking the Communists proved misplaced, while liberals New People also advanced substantially, from 5.3% to around 7.9%, climbing from fifth to fourth. but the breakthrough suggested by some summer polling, when second place appeared possible, never materialized.

Fair Russia provided the late drama. After appearing in danger of losing its parliamentary status, the party eventually scraped across the 5% threshold, yet even this apparent resurrection was broadly consistent with pre-election polling averages.

The larger story, therefore, is how little Russian voting preferences have changed during five extraordinarily eventful years.

Since the previous Duma election, Russia has experienced the Ukraine conflict, unprecedented Western sanctions, sweeping economic changes, and a profound reorientation of its foreign relations. Such circumstances might reasonably have produced either a radicalization of political opinion or widespread political apathy, but instead, voters largely chose continuity. Thus, United Russia strengthened its position, but the familiar parliamentary opposition survived alongside it.

That may be the election’s real surprise, given amid unusually volatile conditions at home and abroad, Russians have largely preserved the existing balance of political forces, suggesting that while there has undoubtedly been consolidation around the flag, maintaining alternative voices within the established political system still matters to a significant part of the electorate.

This article was first published by Kommersant, and was translated and edited by the RT team.